基于人口经济参数的高分辨率抗生素排放清单方法学·Estimating the use of antibiotics for humans across China

通过探讨抗生素使用量与一系列社会经济参数之间的关系构建区域使用量估算模型。结果表明，在经济发展和资源分布严重不均的国家（如中国）和地区，经济水平（以人均国内生产总值表示）是决定抗生素用量的重要因素。将建立的方法应用于构建2011年中国不同空间尺度的抗生素使用清单，结果表明中国东部地区的抗生素使用量远高于其他地区，且不同地区的抗生素使用量存在很高的空间变异性，对于县级水平的不同估算单元，抗生素使用量的差异高达4个数量级（0.186–1645吨/年）。本研究首次将抗生素用量与经济社会参数的关系用于高分辨率使用清单估算。该成果发表在Chemosphere上。【全文链接】

Abstract

The present study aimed to propose a method to estimate the spatially resolved dataset for human-use antibiotics, which are highly needed in exposure models dealing with regions of various environmental characteristics. In this study, a regression model describing the relationship between the use of antibiotics and a set of socio-economic determinants was developed. It has been demonstrated that economic status (expressed using per capita gross domestic production) dominates the antibiotic use at least in China. Linear regression analysis was used to build the model, resulting in high goodness-of-fit, R2 (>0.75). Internal and external validations along with residue plot indicated that the model was robust and predictive. The model was successfully applied to allocate the use of antibiotics in China in 2011 at national-, provincial-, prefectural-, and county-level, which are comparable to that backcalculated from the available data of wastewater analysis in some cities. Antibiotic uses were higher in East China than other regions and it was found that uses of total antibiotics vary among Chinese counties on four orders of magnitude (0.186-1645 t antibiotics per year per county). Also management practice could be worked out according to our exploration of the impact transition of social-economic factors on antibiotic uses. To our knowledge, this is the first endeavor to explore this economic dominated relationship for estimating spatially resolved use map of antibiotics in China.

见微知著·原始反终 ●新兴污染物环境归趋研究组（FECG）